U.S. intelligence assessments do not support President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran will soon possess a missile capable of striking the United States, according to three sources familiar with the reports, raising questions about a key element of his argument for potential military action against Tehran.
In his recent State of the Union address, Trump told Congress that Iran was “working on missiles that will soon reach” the U.S., as he laid out a case for possible strikes against the Islamic Republic.
However, two sources said there have been no changes to a 2025 unclassified assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which concluded that Iran could take until 2035 to develop a “militarily viable” intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) based on its existing space-launch vehicle technology.
One source said that even with potential technical assistance from China or North Korea, Iran would likely need at least eight years to field an operational ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they were unaware of any intelligence indicating Iran was close to deploying such a weapon, though they did not rule out the possibility of new classified findings.
The White House defended the president’s remarks. Spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump was right to highlight concerns about Iran’s potential to acquire long-range missile capabilities.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a more measured tone, saying Iran is “on a pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental U.S.” His comments come as Washington and Tehran continue negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme amid a significant U.S. military buildup in the region.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied that Tehran was expanding its missile range, telling India Today TV that Iran intentionally limits its missiles to under 2,000 kilometres for defensive purposes.
Both the U.S. intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency have assessed that Iran halted its nuclear weapons development programme in 2003. However, the IAEA says Iran has continued enriching uranium in recent years, including to levels close to weapons-grade.
Iran maintains the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East and has successfully launched satellites using space-launch vehicles. Experts say such technology could theoretically be adapted into ICBMs, but significant technical hurdles remain, particularly in developing a reliable re-entry vehicle capable of protecting a nuclear warhead during atmospheric descent.
David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security and a former U.N. nuclear inspector, said Iran still faces substantial engineering challenges before fielding a functional long-range nuclear missile, noting that Israeli airstrikes in recent years have also damaged key missile production facilities.
Trump has threatened military action if Iran does not reach a nuclear agreement with Washington or if it executes detainees arrested during anti-government protests, escalating tensions between the two countries.
