There are growing concerns that Nigerians may continue to pay high prices for petrol and diesel as global crude oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The rise followed renewed hostilities involving the United States and Israel against Iran, alongside threats by Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to keep the strategic Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. The waterway is a major global oil transit route, and disruptions there have triggered volatility in energy markets.
Earlier in the week, many Nigerians had hoped for lower fuel prices after crude oil briefly fell to about $92 per barrel. The drop was linked to a decision by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and its 32 member states to release about 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to cushion supply shocks.
However, crude prices rebounded sharply after Iran signaled it could maintain pressure on global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Market checks indicated that crude prices rose to between $96 and $117 per barrel, depending on the grade.
The surge comes shortly after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) announced reductions in petrol prices earlier in the week. Despite the cuts, pump prices across Nigeria still hover around ₦1,200 per litre in many locations.
In Lagos depots, operators including Matrix, Menj, NIPCO, Pinnacle and Rainoil were selling petrol between ₦1,175 and ₦1,200 per litre, while similar price ranges were recorded in Warri, Port Harcourt and Calabar depots.
Transporters and commuters expressed frustration over the persistently high fuel prices, urging the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to compel marketers to reflect reductions more quickly whenever costs fall.
Meanwhile, NNPC Ltd. reduced the pump price of petrol at its retail outlets to ₦1,130 per litre in Lagos and ₦1,165 per litre in Abuja, representing a cut of about ₦100 from previous rates.
Petroleum economist Wumi Iledare said the fluctuations reflect a broader structural shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector as the country transitions from a heavily regulated, import-dependent system to a more market-driven model.
According to him, uncertainty around crude supply to refineries, foreign exchange dynamics, and replacement costs continues to influence pricing decisions. He added that price stability will likely improve as domestic refining capacity expands and supply chains become more reliable.
Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also showed that Nigeria’s crude oil production dropped to about 1.314 million barrels per day in February 2026, below both its OPEC quota and the federal government’s budget target. Analysts say while high global prices could boost government revenue, consumers may still face elevated fuel costs in the short term.
