A fresh round of fuel price increases appears imminent as President Bola Tinubu has approved a 15 per cent ad valorem import duty on automotive gas oil (diesel) and premium motor spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol.
According to newsmen, the approval was conveyed in a letter dated October 21, 2025, signed by the President’s Private Secretary, Damilotun Aderemi, and addressed to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Tinubu’s approval followed a request from the FIRS to apply the 15 per cent duty on the cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) value of fuel imports, a move aimed at aligning import costs with domestic market realities.
The implementation of the new duty is expected to push the cost of petrol and diesel significantly higher. Estimates suggest that petrol could rise to between ₦950 and ₦960 per litre, while diesel could cost between ₦1,120 and ₦1,140 per litre in Abuja — an increase of about ₦99.72 per litre.
Once implemented, this adjustment could drive petrol prices above ₦1,000 per litre for most filling stations that rely on imported fuel.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority show that total PMS supply between August 2024 and October 2025 was 21.68 billion litres. Of this, only 6.67 billion litres—about 31 per cent—came from local refining, mainly from the Dangote Refinery. The remaining 15.01 billion litres, or 69 per cent, were imported, underscoring Nigeria’s continued dependence on foreign fuel supplies.
As of October 21, 2025, the landing cost of imported petrol stood at ₦839.97 per litre, slightly lower than the Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot price of ₦877 per litre, according to figures from the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria.
The newly approved import duty may therefore tilt the market advantage in favour of locally refined fuel, particularly from the Dangote Refinery.
The approval comes amid widespread fuel price hikes in recent weeks following increases in ex-depot prices by Dangote Refinery and other depot operators.
The development also coincides with a new fiscal policy from the FIRS, which recently directed banks, stockbrokers, and other financial institutions to deduct a 10 per cent withholding tax on interest earned from short-term securities.
