The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth projection for Nigeria to 4.4 per cent in 2026, citing improving macroeconomic conditions and sustained reform momentum.
The revised forecast was contained in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook () Update, titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces,” released on Tuesday.
According to the FuWEOnd, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow steadily from 4.1 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025, before accelerating to 4.4 per cent in 2026. The new estimate represents a 0.2 percentage point upward revision from the IMF’s October 2025 projection.
The IMF said Nigeria’s improved outlook aligns with a broader recovery across sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is projected at 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027. It attributed the regional expansion to macroeconomic stabilisation and ongoing reform efforts in major economies.
At the global level, the Fund projected economic growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026, noting that the world economy remains resilient despite persistent uncertainties. It said the outlook reflects a balance between the drag from shifting trade policies and increased investment in technology and artificial intelligence.
For Nigeria, the IMF identified energy prices as a key factor influencing the 2026 outlook, projecting that energy commodity prices would decline by about 7 per cent due to weak global demand. However, it noted that oil prices are being supported by coordinated production management by OPEC+ and crude stockpiling by China, helping to limit downside risks.
Despite the improved forecast, the IMF cautioned that risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. These include escalating geopolitical tensions, renewed trade protectionism, and high public debt and fiscal deficits that could put pressure on long-term interest rates.
To sustain growth, the Fund urged Nigerian authorities to rebuild fiscal buffers and accelerate structural reforms, stressing that central bank independence remains critical for macroeconomic stability. It also advised that any discretionary fiscal support should be well targeted and time-bound.
The IMF concluded that Nigeria’s ability to achieve its 2026 growth target will depend on consistent policy implementation and t
