Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensate, declined by 8.3 percent year-on-year to 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.684 million bpd recorded in the same period of 2024, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The regulator disclosed this in its latest report released on Tuesday, though it did not state specific reasons for the decline. Industry watchers, however, point to limited investment and production challenges as likely factors.
On a month-on-month basis, oil output also dipped slightly to 1.544 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.599 million bpd in November 2025.
The figures show that Nigeria failed to meet its 1.5 million bpd production quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Of the total output in December, 122,385 bpd was condensate, which is excluded from OPEC’s quota calculations.
The shortfall also means the Federal Government missed its 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd, which was based on an oil price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of about N1,500 to the dollar.
According to the NUPRC, daily average production in December stood at 1,544,345 bpd, made up of 1,421,960 bpd of crude oil and 122,385 bpd of condensate. The commission said average crude production represented about 95 percent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
Similarly, OPEC, in its January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, said Nigeria’s crude oil output excluding condensate fell marginally by 0.9 percent month-on-month to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.436 million bpd in November, based on direct communication data.
On a year-on-year basis, OPEC reported that Nigeria’s output declined to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.485 million bpd in the comparable period, further confirming that the country remained below its production target.
Commenting on the trend, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Wumi Iledare, attributed the persistent decline to insecurity, a mature oil basin with few new discoveries, and policy uncertainty.
He also criticised governance gaps and selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act, warning that investor confidence would remain weak until clear leadership and consistent policies are established in the sector.
