The Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA) has assessed the 16 August 2025 by-elections across 12 states, highlighting issues such as voter apathy, electoral malpractice, technology failures, and the influence of incumbency, tribalism, and religion. While some dominant parties retained seats, surprises occurred in Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba. The NPSA urges stakeholders—including INEC, political parties, and civil society—to address these challenges to strengthen electoral integrity ahead of the 2027 General Elections.
See full statement below:
THE NIGERIAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION (NPSA)
Press Release 020
2025 By-Elections, Political Parties, and a Gaze at the 2027 Electoral Cycle
Background
On 16 August 2025, Nigerians from twelve states—including Adamawa, Anambra, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Ogun, Oyo, Taraba, and Zamfara—went to the polls to fill vacancies in state and national assembly seats created by deaths or court judgments. Reports in The Guardian and Premium Times highlight several key issues that shaped these elections.
Observations on the 2025 By-Elections
Firstly, some elections saw wide margins between winners and runners-up, as in Niger State (Munya constituency), Kaduna State (Zaria Kewaye constituency), and Edo and Anambra senatorial by-elections. Conversely, some results were extremely close, such as the Taraba State Karim I constituency, where the margin was less than 400 votes.
In most states, candidates from dominant political parties secured victories, except in Taraba, Adamawa, and Zamfara, where results were inconclusive. There were notable surprises in Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba, where opposition parties won seats from incumbents.
Voter apathy was evident in several areas, although states like Edo and Anambra recorded high turnout. Reports also highlighted election malpractices, including rigging, ballot stuffing, vote-buying, and thuggery, sometimes aided by malfunctioning electoral devices such as BVAS and the INEC Results Viewing portal. Campaigns largely focused on attacks rather than issue-based discourse, while party manifestos were largely ignored. Political ideology was almost entirely absent, making party differentiation difficult for voters.
Violence and security challenges affected some constituencies, with the role of security agencies varying from commendable to inadequate. Incumbency, tribalism, religion, and party loyalty remained influential in election outcomes, while some opposition parties failed to make significant showings.
Implications for the 2027 General Elections
The by-elections provide several lessons for 2027:
- Election Standards: The conduct of elections remains below acceptable standards, with accusations and counter-accusations affecting confidence in INEC.
- Technology Deployment: Malfunctioning electoral devices and logistic delays highlight the need for better technological integration.
- Political Party Performance: Parties must improve organization, citizen mobilization, and engagement to ensure higher voter turnout.
- Election Violence: Politics often resembles a “war,” with morally repressive measures to influence votes.
- Incumbency Advantage: Incumbents continue to control coercive state instruments, highlighting the need for a level playing field.
- Law Enforcement: Weak enforcement of electoral laws by security agencies remains a challenge.
- Electoral Integrity: Stakeholders must act to prevent unfair advantages provided by security agencies.
- Citizen Engagement: Parties are largely irrelevant to citizens outside election periods; mobilization remains transactional.
- Electoral Culture: Winning at all costs persists, emphasizing the need for vigilance in 2027.
- Politics as Business: Campaign expenditures influence officeholders’ priorities post-election.
- INEC Perception: Public scrutiny of INEC will intensify; the body must maintain transparency and credibility.
- Electoral Reform: Legal and value-based reforms are necessary to improve electoral processes.
- Socioeconomic Factors: Hardship and governance failures affect voter behaviour, as seen in Oyo State.
- Readiness for 2027: Parties must demonstrate credible programs addressing citizens’ needs to secure victories.
- Political Alliances: Emerging alliances may influence future outcomes, as observed in Anambra State.
Concluding Remarks
The 2025 by-elections offered a valuable mid-term assessment of governance and electoral management. Lessons drawn from their conduct provide guidance for 2027, emphasizing the need for all stakeholders—political parties, INEC, security agencies, civil society, and voters—to enhance electoral integrity. The NPSA hopes these insights will inspire positive reforms, ensuring that the 2027 elections surpass the by-elections in credibility and fairness.
Hassan A. Saliu, fnpsa
President, NPSA
Ilorin, 25 August 2025
