Energy experts have criticised recent recommendations by the World Bank urging Nigeria to deepen fuel importation and fully liberalise its downstream petroleum sector, warning that the advice is ill-timed, economically regressive and inconsistent with the country’s refining strategy under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
An energy economist, Ken Ife, raised concerns during a televised interview on Nigeria’s economic outlook, noting that while parts of the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update were analytically sound, its recommendation on fuel imports could undermine efforts toward energy independence and domestic value addition.
“You cannot come to a country that is struggling, and which has just developed a vision of economic self-reliance and then advise it to reverse course and return to fuel importation,” Ife said, arguing that such guidance weakens Nigeria’s long-term strategic direction.
He stressed that the proposal contradicts provisions of the PIA, which prioritise domestic crude supply to local refiners through the Domestic Crude Obligation framework. According to him, encouraging a shift back to imports runs counter to both government policy and existing legislation.
Ife warned that increased reliance on imported fuel would expose Nigeria to global supply disruptions, worsen foreign exchange pressures and discourage investment in local refining capacity at a time when private sector participation is expanding.
He also questioned the empirical basis for the recommendation, describing it as an unsupported addition to an otherwise rigorous macroeconomic assessment. He maintained that Nigeria is on track to build refining capacity capable of meeting domestic demand and supporting export potential.
Another energy expert, Kelvin Emmanuel, echoed similar concerns and described the World Bank’s position as disconnected from prevailing market realities. He also claimed the institution had withdrawn the contested Nigeria Development Update from its website.
Emmanuel dismissed suggestions that imported petrol could be cheaper than locally refined products, stating that no marketer could currently land petrol in Nigeria below about N1,759 per litre after accounting for freight, insurance and supply-chain risks.
He attributed rising price pressures partly to higher global crude benchmarks driven by tensions in the Middle East, noting that while futures prices hover near $100 per barrel, dated Brent crude has traded significantly higher, pushing up downstream costs.
The analyst further rejected claims that petrol prices in Nigeria are excessively high compared with neighbouring countries, and argued that volatility in domestic fuel pricing largely reflects inconsistent enforcement of local crude supply obligations rather than resource scarcity.
Emmanuel also cautioned against proposals to expand social safety nets through borrowing, saying such measures conflict with fiscal responsibility principles and that external financing should prioritise capital and human development projects rather than consumption support.
