The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the Nigerian government to revise its proposed 2025 budget to reflect current global oil market trends, citing lower-than-anticipated crude prices.
The recommendation was contained in the IMF’s Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria, released on Wednesday in Washington, D.C.
While the Fund upgraded Nigeria’s 2025 economic growth forecast from 3.2% to 3.4%, it warned that the country’s budget assumptions may be overly optimistic. The growth revision was attributed to improved oil production, which the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, said had reached 1.745 million barrels per day, along with a decline in inflation to 22.97% in May.
Despite these positive indicators, the IMF stressed that Nigeria’s N54.99 trillion budget for 2025—based on a crude oil benchmark of $75 per barrel—may not be sustainable, given current market prices.
As of Wednesday, Brent crude futures traded at approximately $68.68 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $67.04, both significantly below the government’s budget benchmark.
The IMF noted that such a gap between projected and actual prices could lead to fiscal imbalances unless adjustments are made.
Crude oil prices briefly touched the $75 mark in mid-June 2025 amid heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, but have since declined.
The Fund’s caution highlights the vulnerability of oil-dependent economies like Nigeria to global price fluctuations and reinforces the need for prudent fiscal planning.
Nigeria relies heavily on oil revenues to fund its budget, making accurate price projections critical to maintaining economic stability.