The World Bank has described Nigeria’s goal of achieving single-digit inflation in the short term as unrealistic, warning that the country remains one of the few in Africa still battling persistently high consumer prices.
In its latest Africa’s Pulse report released on Tuesday, the Bank projected that Nigeria, along with Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Zimbabwe, will continue to record double-digit inflation through 2025.
The report revealed that while 37 of Africa’s 47 economies are expected to achieve single-digit inflation by 2026, Nigeria remains an outlier due to currency depreciation, high food and energy costs, and deep-rooted supply chain bottlenecks.
This projection contradicts the Federal Government’s optimism that recent fiscal and monetary reforms—such as foreign exchange unification, fuel subsidy removal, and tighter monetary policy—would quickly drive inflation to single digits.
Government officials, including the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, and the Central Bank Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, have repeatedly assured Nigerians that the reforms will soon yield results. At a recent Lagos Business School event, Cardoso reaffirmed that a single-digit inflation rate remains the Central Bank’s medium-term target.
However, the World Bank cautioned that despite broad disinflation across Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria remains trapped in double-digit inflation, which continues to undermine consumer demand and business confidence.
It noted that while countries like Kenya, Senegal, and South Africa have stabilized prices through disciplined fiscal policies and strong foreign exchange management, Nigeria’s inflation trajectory is being driven by structural challenges, including exchange rate volatility and high logistics costs.
“Consumer price inflation has continued to recede across most Sub-Saharan African countries, but Nigeria’s situation remains challenging because of exchange rate pass-through and structural supply bottlenecks,” said Andrew Dabalen, the Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa.
The report, titled Pathways to Job Creation in Africa, also projected that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy will grow by 3.8 per cent in 2025 and 4.4 per cent in 2026–27. Nigeria’s growth forecast was revised upward by 0.6 percentage points, buoyed by improved oil output and modest investment inflows.
Despite this, the Bank warned that inflation continues to erode household welfare and slow real income growth, urging African governments to adopt policies that reduce production costs, strengthen institutions, and expand access to private investment.
It further identified agribusiness, healthcare, housing, tourism, and mining as key sectors capable of driving employment, stressing the need for sustained policy reforms to translate growth into job creation and improved living standards.
