The World Bank Group has warned that the Middle East war could trigger the biggest energy price surge in four years, with energy prices projected to rise 24 percent in 2026 as attacks on infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz shake global commodity markets. The lender said Brent crude could average $86 per barrel, while overall commodity prices may climb 16 percent, raising concerns over inflation, growth and food security.
The report said the supply shock, estimated at about 10 million barrels per day, is already driving higher prices for oil, fertiliser and metals, with fertiliser costs expected to jump 31 percent. The bank warned prolonged conflict could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity, while developing economies face weaker growth as rising import costs strain incomes and public finances.
World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill said the crisis is hitting the global economy through higher energy and food prices, rising inflation and more expensive debt, with poorer households and heavily indebted developing countries expected to suffer the most. The bank urged governments to avoid broad subsidy measures and instead provide targeted support to vulnerable households.
Meanwhile, reports indicate Iran may harden its negotiating posture as hardliner Saeed Jalili is expected to take over nuclear talks, replacing Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf amid internal disputes. Jalili’s possible appointment is seen as signaling a tougher stance in diplomatic engagements with the United States.
Analysts say the leadership shift in Iran, combined with escalating regional conflict, adds to uncertainty in global markets and geopolitical tensions. The developments have heightened fears of prolonged supply disruptions and broader economic fallout if hostilities intensify.
